Some thoughts, apologizing in advance for unrefined note-taking form.
ugc = user generated content = basic business model for web 2.0 (get your users to create low quality content for free, sell clicks).
ugc/web 2.0 is a ponzi, the successor ponzi to the original banner ad ponzi:
ugj = user generated judgements = model for augur/hivemind. get your users to create low quality (sybil attackable) judgements for almost free, sell propositional bets. if enough users participate in the scheme it should repel sybil attacks.
problem is, at least creating content is fun / feeds narcissism. augur/hivemind actually pays its users (very little) to create judgements, and there is nothing intrinsically rewarding on this. it’s like having a very boring, very ugly pet that doesn’t love you or display any affection but requires feeding and watering and taking on walks to use the bathroom.
worse yet with augur, it’s a stick rather than carrot approach. you fail to report, or you spam report random value, and they confiscate your rep. even less fun.
prediction: augur/hivemind will fail.
same applies to many of the ethereum hype bubble dapp enterprises.
it will take forever for investors to recognize this. so, same way time warner lost $1B on time warner, fox lost however many $B on myspace, and new crop of investors may lose on facebook/google feudal model for ugc that is supported by many money-losing made-for-adsense click farms and pension funds holding the stock…
user-generated judgements/business actions is bubble that may have some pockets of rationality, but will mostly drain productive value and be fun times for speculators and scammers
with augur, it’s a stick rather than carrot approach. you fail to report, or you spam report random value, and they confiscate your rep. even less fun.
new acronym… ugba… user-generated business administration.
we’ll see what hivemind comes up with, but I think similar logic applies.
ugba is lame.
just start an insider trading tips for sale silk road behind an onion address, centrally managed, reasonably brokered. makes so much more economic sense. or for that matter, reputation-backed propositional bets judgements for sale (like for assasinations / terrorist attacks / pie attacks). it will go the usual treadmill of exit scams and replacements, but at least it doesn’t waste life of thousand suckers trying to run the thing in sybil resistant way till investors figure out they are being fleeced on app coins