Greece is voting on whether to stay in the EU, and accept some punishing social policies (“kick the can”); or go back to the drachma, and be exiled from the hard money club for a while (“grexit”).
Briefly, I think a kick the can vote is most bullish for crypto. It’s somewhat counterintuitive, because bitcoin generally thrives where vanilla money is falling on hard times. A grexit would seem to entail maximum chaos and pain.
But the recent troubles have finally put bitcoin on the map for greeks, as evidenced by google trends and exchange data.
With liquidity restored to greek citizens, businesses can prep for kick the can failing in the future, by buying bitcoin and moving fiat money offshore. Then when greece finally defaults (probably months, but maybe years), they will be positioned to survive with assets that can’t be flash-liquidated by the IMF and the ECB.
In the case of grexit, it would be hard to buy bitcoin with drachmas (as it is in venezula and argentina), and if capital controls are put into play, maybe illegal.
The situation is analogous to a family that has fallen on hard times, but still has access to credit. If they realize they are eventually going to default, but the credit card hasn’t figured this out yet, the smart move is to stock up on food and maybe prepay rent and take care of medical costs using credit, and then default. So they will be going into bankruptcy with as fat a cushion as possible.
An immediate grexit generates some headlines, but does not generate maximum demand for btc.
I think kicking the can is also better for the people of greece.